Crude Export Rises to 6.19M BPD Amid Output Surge
Saudi crude exports climbed to a three-month high of 6.191 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025, marking a 1.19% annual increase. The uptick reflects a broader revival in production, which reached 9.184 million bpd — a 2.12% year-on-year jump. The Saudi energy ministry continues to align its output trajectory with OPEC+ strategies, adjusting flows as voluntary cuts unwind.
For lubricant manufacturers, this surge signals increased feedstock availability. Higher upstream output reinforces expectations for stable supply across base oils and refining derivatives through Q3.
Refined Exports Up 12.12%, Gasoline Volumes Drive Growth
Refined oil exports rose to 1.37 million bpd in May, up 12.12% year on year. The standout contributor: motor and aviation gasoline, which soared 25% to 325,000 bpd. Despite this, gas diesel exports fell 2.62% and fuel oil shipments dipped 3%. Gas diesel retained dominance at 43% of refined exports, followed by gasoline at 24% and fuel oil at 12%.
This refined mix directly impacts the lubricants supply chain. Rising transportation fuel volumes could spur higher demand for viscosity modifiers and anti-wear additives, especially in gasoline-heavy markets like UAE and Oman.
Direct Crude Burn Up 23% Signals Power Sector Pressure
Saudi Arabia’s direct crude burn rose 23% compared to May 2024, reaching 489,000 bpd. The spike aligns with seasonal residential demand and population growth—indicating higher domestic energy consumption.
For industrial lubricants suppliers, this trend may portend increased demand for power-generation lubricants and turbine oils, especially amid peak summer loads.
Refinery Throughput Slows to 2.72M BPD, Base Oil Tightness Ahead?
Despite export and production gains, refinery crude throughput rose only slightly month-on-month to 2.721 million bpd, a 7.64% drop compared to last year. As refiners prioritize premium fuels, lubricant feedstocks may face tighter allocation, particularly in Group II and Group III grades.
Lubricant blenders and distributors should monitor yield shifts closely — base oil supply imbalances may re-emerge in Q4 if throughput doesn’t rebound.
OPEC+ Signals Further Output Hikes, Market Confidence Holds
Following its July announcement of a 548,000 bpd hike for August, OPEC+ is set to meet again on August 3 to discuss further increases. Saudi Arabia remains central to these efforts, leading phased rollbacks of 2.17 million bpd in voluntary cuts. Production hikes of 411,000 bpd across May, June, and July reflect optimism about global oil resilience.
Lubricants industry players can interpret this as a sign of mid-term supply stability — especially for upstream-linked specialty products and petrochemical derivatives.
Also Read: Saudi’s Lubricants Lead with Fastest CAGR to 2030
